A man works at a garment factory. Apparel is the largest part of Bangladesh's exports, which are set to grow substantially along with Asia-led trade growth.

Bangladesh's trade is expected to grow 19 percent a year between 2013 and 2015, driven by a rise in trade with the neighbouring India, HSBC said in a report, Global Connections.

The bank also forecasted the country's annual trade growth to be in the region of 14 percent from 2016 to 2020.

Although the Asian export growth is expected to be lower in 2016-20 than in the near-term, some countries, namely Bangladesh, Malaysia and Singapore, are exempt from it, according to the report released recently.

HSBC's Global Connections report combines HSBC's bi-annual Trade Confidence Index with a 5-, 10- and 15-year trade forecast.

�Although trade growth in Asia has slowed over the past 12 months, the HSBC Trade Forecast says trade will pick up in 2013 and Asia will continue to power the world economy, with China and India leading the way,� said Noel Quinn, head of HSBC's commercial banking in the Asia-Pacific region.

Trade prospects for all Asian countries, however, will depend crucially on what happens in China, and to a lesser extent, in India, according to Quinn.

�Our forecasts for these two countries show strong growth continuing after the current slow patch, leading to a recovery of the world economy,� he added.

He said both China and India will continue to expand strongly in terms of world GDP, leading to emerging Asian countries becoming an increasingly important influence on world growth and trade.

This, in turn, would have a pivotal impact on flows of foreign investment between the developed and developing economies.

The HSBC report said merchandising exports from all countries in the region would remain robust, led by China, India, and Vietnam, all of whom are expected to post double-digit annual increases until 2020.

Indonesia and Hong Kong are also expected to record double-digit growth in 2013-2015 before slowing down to 7-8 percent in 2016-2020.

Bilateral trade between China and India is set to increase significantly, with India becoming the fastest expanding market for Chinese products.

Meanwhile, India's exports to China are set to grow 23 percent during 2013-15 and 19 percent in 2016-20.

The HSBC report also projects a growth in South-South trade, with Brazil and Mexico becoming important trading partners for India, Malaysia, Vietnam and China.

News: The Daily Star/Bangladesh/18-Nov-12