Southeast Asian nations, China and India together may surpass the US and Europe combined in terms of wealth by 2030 if the Asian economies take quick steps to overcome challenges and reduce risks, according to a new book.

“The Asean is the hub of Asian regionalism. China is the world's most populous country and the second largest economy. India is rapidly catching up, and has the second largest population," the book says.

"Asean, the PRC, and India: The Great Transformation?" was released by the Asian Development Bank and Asian Development Bank Institute in Manila yesterday, the Bank said in a statement.

The book envisions that realising this goal would require that each improve productivity through innovation and new technologies, establish knowledge-driven economies, build seamless infrastructure connectivity and reform the financial sector.

“These three region and countries are on a path to significantly improve the quality of life of their citizens -- in aggregate approaching half of the world's population by 2030,” ADB President Haruhiko Kuroda said at the book launching ceremony.

The programme took place during the 45th annual meeting of ADB's Board of Governors at San Miguel Hall of Philippine International Convention Centre, Manila.

“By that time, China could reach high-income country status, while the Asean as a whole and India would be close behind. The three could be home to the world's leading consumers, producers, savers, investors and financiers,” he said.

The book said the three economies will have to depend increasingly on their own and regional markets, investments, and institutions to generate sustained growth.

Without inclusive growth, widening income and social inequality are likely to persist and could undermine social cohesion and stability, according to the book.

Strengthening governance, accountability, institutional effectiveness and eradicating corruption are crucial for inclusive growth and better quality of life, it stated.

The book predicted that unless the challenges of energy and water security and reduction of CO2 emissions are addressed, these could amplify global environmental risks and geopolitical tensions.

To meet their potential, each economy will need to manage energy, food, and water effectively, balancing growth with environmental sustainability, it said.

The Daily Star/Bangladesh/ 3rd May 2012