Though the IMF downgraded Bangladesh’s growth estimation to 5.8 percent in 2012-13 fiscal due to sluggish exports and investment, experts opined that the country may maintain its 6 percent-plus growth by accelerated export performance in readymade apparels, leather products and increased expatriate remittance which is expected to be around $14 billion in the current year.

The editorial of ICCB (the International Chamber of Commerce, Bangladesh) news bulletin released Wednesday mentioned this quoting IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) projections.

In the WEO projections, IMF said the 7.2 percent growth target set by the Bangladesh government seems to be unachievable considering the global context coupled with basic deficiency in infrastructure and utilities such as gas and power.

After its previous downward revisions in April this year, IMF again downgraded growth forecast for Bangladesh, India, South Korea and ASEAN-5 nations: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam due to Euro Zone crisis.

Growth in emerging nations is expected to moderate to 5.6 percent this year before picking up to 5.9 percent next year, according to IMF. The 2012 growth estimate for the Indian economy will be lower by 0.7 percentage points to 6.1 percent, the sharpest revision for any of the countries included in the IMF report, ICCB quoted IMF.

The global economy has reached a critical juncture, and is facing the arduous task of overcoming major difficulties standing in the way of recovering and ensuring steady growth. Europe’s debt crisis has festered for more than three years now, according to the ICCB editorial.

Analysts said Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, high commodity prices, the legacy of the financial collapse and tension between the world’s three biggest economies had soured the economic environment since the start of 2012, it added.

In the past three months, the global recovery, which was not strong to start with, has shown signs of further weakness. The scenario of a synchronised recession across the world loomed larger since the breaking news of shrinking in China’s factory output as well as intensified recession in Europe and the weakest quarter performance of the US manufacturing sector. In addition lower GDP growth in a number of major emerging economies has further aggravated the situation.

IMF projected, global growth will be 3.5 percent in 2012 and 3.9 percent in 2013, marginally lower than its April forecast. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has also warned about deteriorating global trade and has slashed its growth forecast from 3.7 to 2.5 percent, less than half of the previous 20-year average. According to WTO Director General Pascal Lamy, there is more risk of things getting worse than better, ICCB quoted.

Similarly, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predicted shrinking of UK economy by 0.7 percent, compared with its previous forecasts of 0.5 percent growth. Even though the US economy is expected to grow due to improvements in the housing market and some progress on tackling its debt, still, the OECD has reduced US growth forecast from 2.4 percent to 2.3 percent.

News: The Daily Sun/Bangladesh/18th-Oct-12